Two numbers describe the same market and disagree by roughly 40 percent. LandSearch puts the average Burnet County listing at $41,588 per acre. Acres.com, working from 174 recorded sales, puts the median sold price at $24,399. Land.com splits the difference at a $28,596 median. A buyer who anchors to the listing figure is reading a market that closings do not support, and a seller who anchors to sold comps is ignoring what the shelf actually asks. The gap is not noise. It is the market pricing in two very specific things at once: a transmission corridor no one has finalized yet, and a state park no one can visit yet.
That is the mechanism worth understanding before writing an offer on a Burnet County tract this year.
The listing-to-sold gap is doing work
A 40 percent spread between average list and median sold is not the ordinary "sellers ask more than buyers pay." Some of it is composition. Big-ticket ranches with luxury improvements skew the listing average. The $908 million in Burnet County ranch inventory on Land.com sits on roughly 100,000 acres, which pulls the average up but tells a smaller buyer nothing useful.
The more interesting portion of the gap is temporal. Sold comps look backward. They include closings from a period when the county was quietly growing at 2.5 to 3 percent annually and the largest headline was Highland Lakes tourism. Current listings look forward, and forward now includes a 765 kV transmission project and a new 3,000-plus acre state park. Sellers are pricing 2027 conditions. Buyers, at the closing table, are still paying for what the ground did last year.
For a builder or investor comparing tracts, the practical read is this: use sold medians for underwriting, not listing averages, and expect real negotiation room on parcels that have carried a listing price for more than 60 days. Burnet-area existing-home inventory ran roughly 80 days on market at a 92.8 percent sale-to-list ratio through early 2026, which is the same story one layer up.
The line that has not been drawn yet
The single biggest variable in Burnet County land pricing right now is a project without a finalized route. The Bell County East to Big Hill 765 kV transmission line would run more than 200 miles from Bell County to Schleicher County, with an estimated total cost of $33 billion and, according to reporting from DailyTrib, all three of the currently proposed major paths still cross Burnet County.
The physical footprint matters for anyone underwriting acreage:
- Easements are expected to require 200 to 300 feet of width across affected parcels
- Towers carrying the highest-voltage lines Texas has ever built would stand 15 to 18 stories tall
- The stated end users are cryptocurrency mining, data centers, green hydrogen projects, and petroleum electrification
Two things follow. First, any parcel intersected by the eventual approved route absorbs a permanent easement that reduces buildable area, limits vertical development near the corridor, and creates a visual condition that materially changes lifestyle appeal. Second, and less obvious, parcels near the eventual route but not on it are the ones most likely to see amenity re-rating once the uncertainty resolves. That is the option value currently priced into listings across the county whether the seller articulates it or not.
Burnet County Judge Bryan Wilson framed the county's April 1 filing position as advocacy for landowners even under the assumption that the routes will not move. The Public Utility Commission of Texas is the decision-maker. Until PUCT rules, every listing in the county carries a small, unpriced probability that it becomes a corridor parcel.
The practical translation for buyers: build a route-risk clause into your offer. Have the seller carry back a small holdback or a price adjustment tied to the PUCT's final route determination, or accept a discount today in exchange for taking that risk on. Silence in the contract is a decision to absorb the risk at full price.
The offsetting story sitting across the Colorado River
The transmission line is the depressant. Post Oak Ridge State Park is the lift. The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department purchased more than 3,000 acres along the eastern bank of the Colorado River in January 2025, directly across the water from Colorado Bend State Park. Under TPWD policy, newly acquired parklands must open for limited public use within 18 months and full public use within 48 months, which puts a partial opening on the table for 2026 and full access by 2027. Public input meetings were held at the AgriLife Extension Auditorium in Burnet on June 4, 2026.
State-park adjacency is one of the cleaner amenity premiums in rural Texas land pricing. The mechanism is straightforward:
| Distance from Post Oak Ridge access | Likely 2026-2027 pricing behavior |
|---|---|
| Direct road frontage or shared border | Highest re-rating; scarcity plus permanent open-space guarantee |
| Within 15 minutes of a gate | Meaningful lift on lakefront-comparable parcels |
| County-wide "halo" | Modest but real tourism-and-second-home demand pull |
Lake-adjacent parcels in the county already trade in the $40,000 to $60,000-per-acre range on active listings. Park-adjacent tracts on the northwestern edge of Burnet County are the parcels most likely to compress toward that band as the park stands up.
Why the sub-regional planning commission changes the negotiation
In February 2026, the City of Burnet, the City of Marble Falls, and Burnet County formally created the Highland Lakes Sub-Regional Planning Commission under Chapter 391 of the Texas Local Government Code. The stated purpose covers land use, infrastructure, public safety, and economic development, and the immediate use case is speaking with a unified voice to outside entities on projects like the transmission line, battery storage facilities, and water infrastructure. The City Manager's May 2026 message flagged that LCRA has signaled future outdoor watering restrictions of no more than once per week.
For a buyer or developer, the commission is not a talking point. It is a signal about entitlement friction. Three effects to expect:
- Coordinated review of major-infrastructure land use will slow speculative projects that rely on isolated county approvals
- Water-availability due diligence becomes non-optional for any subdivision plan touching municipal supply, especially on parcels contemplating irrigation-dependent uses
- Small-subdivision proposals aligned with the commission's stated priorities should move more predictably than those that ignore it
Any feasibility package written for a Burnet County tract in 2026 that does not address LCRA's coming outdoor-watering posture is incomplete. That is a lender-visible gap.
What this means at the offer stage
The market rewards specificity right now. Three moves that consistently create room:
- Anchor to sold, not listed. Bring the $24,399 median-sold figure into the conversation on any parcel priced meaningfully above it, and ask what the seller sees in the forward story that supports the delta.
- Price the route risk explicitly. For any parcel in the general corridor of the three proposed transmission routes, either negotiate a discount or negotiate a contingency tied to PUCT's route selection.
- Underwrite the water assumption. Assume once-per-week outdoor watering in your absorption model for any subdivision concept, and confirm well and septic feasibility on any unrestricted tract where those will be required.
Sellers who have carried a listing since 2025 are increasingly open to structured offers. The 92.8 percent sale-to-list ratio on existing homes is the closest weekly barometer of that flexibility, and land tends to lag by a quarter.
FAQ
Does the transmission line kill a Burnet County land deal? No, but it changes how the deal should be priced. Parcels not intersected by the final route may benefit from the resolved uncertainty. Parcels intersected will absorb a permanent easement and should trade accordingly. The risk is asymmetric, which is why it belongs in the contract.
When does Post Oak Ridge State Park actually open? TPWD's own policy requires limited public use within 18 months of acquisition, which points to 2026 for partial access, with full public use by 2027. Planning is being informed by the public meetings held in June 2026.
Is Burnet County land still cheaper than Bertram or Georgetown? On a per-acre basis, generally yes at the median sold level, though lakefront and park-adjacent parcels have their own submarkets. For a corridor comparison, see how the Bertram land market is evolving and how the northern Austin exurban belt is repricing.
Should I close before or after the PUCT rules on the route? That is a lender and risk-tolerance question. Closing before means paying today's price and carrying the route risk. Waiting means potentially paying a re-rated price on parcels the market decides are safe. The right answer depends on your build timeline and the specific parcel's position relative to all three proposed corridors.
If you are evaluating a specific tract in Burnet County and want the sold comps, route exposure, and utility feasibility read against your build plan, Land Homes Texas can put a lender-ready package together. Request a Feasibility Review and we will start with the parcel and work outward.
